"The combination of default and devaluation has helped Iceland limit the damage from its banking disaster. In fact, in terms of employment and output, Iceland has done somewhat better than Ireland and much better than the Baltic nations.
So will one or more troubled European nations go down the same path? To do so, they would have to overcome a big obstacle: the fact that, unlike Iceland, they no longer have their own currencies. As Barry Eichengreen of Berkeley pointed out in an influential 2007 analysis, any euro-zone country that even hinted at leaving the currency would trigger a devastating run on its banks, as depositors rushed to move their funds to safer locales. And Eichengreen concluded that this “procedural” obstacle to exit made the euro irreversible.
But Argentina’s peg to the dollar was also supposed to be irreversible, and for much the same reason. What made devaluation possible, in the end, was the fact that there was a run on the banks despite the government’s insistence that one peso would always be worth one dollar. This run forced the Argentine government to limit withdrawals, and once these limits were in place, it was possible to change the peso’s value without setting off a second run. Nothing like that has happened in Europe — yet. But it’s certainly within the realm of possibility, especially as the pain of austerity and internal devaluation drags on."
P. Krugman
Pranešimai
Old Folks See Culture Change
Prieš 31 minutę
Krugman buvo pateikes mintį, kad Baltijos valiutas reikia devalvuoti. Matyt tą mintis jį kankina toliau. Randi ko ieškai . O ko mes ieškome ? Priežasčių ar pasekmių ? Priežastys aiškios ir paprastos : skolinamos lėšos naudojamos tiek neefektyviai , kad net įsivaizduoti sunku. Vyrai stogas laša – tai pakišam ant grindų auksinius bliudelius su deimantiniais pagražinimais. Gana brangu bet grindys sausos. Dar daugiau bėga dar daugiau auksinių bliudelių. Labai vertinga naujausia Kreivio idėja padalyti po 20mlj. gamykloms rajonuose statyti .Gal auksinius bliudelius gamins ?
AtsakytiPanaikintiKaip Krugmanas duoda suprast: nebus "transfer union" -nebus ir Euro išbaigtumo. Vienas iš variantų būtų E-bonds. Bet aišku ze-Germans pakankamai skeptiškai nusiteikę šiuo klausimu, kaip rašo Gavyn Davies: "The blue bond plan is a long way from being perfect from the German point of view, because it does involve an element of bail out and moral hazard"
AtsakytiPanaikintiO koks būtų nematomaranka.lt komentaras apie E-bonds ? Nežinau gal nebent netyčia praleidau, bet lyg dar nepostringavote šia tema.