2009 m. lapkritis 4 d., trečiadienis

Nouriel Roubini: burbulas sprogs

Nouriel Roubini rašo, kad akcijų ir kito turto kainos pakilo per daug ir per greitai. Ekonomikos stimuliavimas ir silpnas doleris sukėlė turto kainų burbulą. Kadangi akcijų kainos neatspindi realios ekonomikos padėties, rinkoms gresia globalinis krachas. Roubini straipsnis tikrai vertas dėmesio, tik gaila, kad tiksli burbulo sprogimo data nežinoma.
Posted by at 00:30
Labels: ,

1 comments:

  1. Krachas ar ne krachas, bet be rimtų sukrėtimų finansų rinkos neapsieis. Kitaip ir būti negali, kada kreivos pasaulio finansų sistemos refliaciją vykdo (ir riziką kaupia) žmonės, asmeniškai už nieką neatsakingi - vyriausybės.

    Labai tinkamą naujosios tvarkos apibūdinimą pasiūlė Daug Noland - "The Newest Abnormal"
    http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10303

    Mr. Gross’s New Normal – constrained by “deleveraging and reregulation” - seems to imply a more subdued and therefore stable Credit landscape. Such a backdrop would be consistent with lower average economic growth and lower investment returns. The Newest Abnormal – with varieties of newfangled Bubbles, excesses and uncertainties – would point to ongoing financial and economic volatility. The “averages” may indeed be lower going forward - but it may be the divergences that prove most noteworthy (hard asset returns vs. securities; non-dollar vs. dollar; China GDP vs. U.S., for example).

    The New Normal implies more monetary order, while the Newest Abnormal suggests unrelenting Monetary Disorder. The proponents of the New Normal would tend to view extreme government intervention as a stabilizing force appropriate for a (deflationary) post-Bubble landscape. From the Newest Abnormal perspective, massive government deficits and market interventions inaugurate a dangerous new stage of global inflationism. Newest Abnormal analysis posits that a more stable New Normal backdrop would, at this point, likely arise only after a major government debt crisis.
    AtsakytiPanaikinti

Užsisakykite: Rašyti komentarus (Atom)